A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
